“You want to buy them near the moving averages. One thing you will find is the best breakouts pretty much all the great breakouts happen from where when the price is at the 10 or the 20 moving average. That’s one of the first things you will notice.”

Comprehensive Report: Qullamaggie on Buying Near the Moving Averages

Executive Summary – The optimal entry points for momentum breakouts often occur when price pulls back to or near the 10-day or 20-day moving averages, allowing these key support levels to “catch up” after an initial surge, creating clean, high-probability setups with relative strength and higher lows.

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As Kristjan Kullamägi (Qullamaggie) explains in the provided clip, “the best breakouts pretty much all the great breakouts happen from where when the price is at the 10 or the 20 moving average,” regretting an early FOMO buy in SPCE before MAs aligned, while praising his MSTR entry when they caught up.

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This report draws from Qullamaggie’s empirical observations, Jeff Sun’s rule-based adaptations, and Kay Klingson’s quantitative insights on moving averages.

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Using examples like SPCE’s premature entry versus MSTR’s aligned buy, and broader cases such as CELH surfing the 10/20, we’ll explore the philosophy of waiting for MA support, identification methods, and frameworks for execution. – Buying near MAs isn’t timing perfection—it’s stacking odds; let price digest, MAs catch up, and enter with conviction for outsized moves.

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Understanding the Core Philosophy

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Qullamaggie’s core insight on buying near moving averages emphasizes patience and pattern recognition: after a stock’s initial leg higher, the best breakouts emerge when price consolidates constructively (e.g., higher lows, relative strength) allowing the 10-day and/or 20-day MAs to “catch up,” providing dynamic support for the next surge.

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He stresses this as “one of the first things you will notice” from studying charts—the great moves start at these levels, not extended highs where FOMO tempts early entries, as in his SPCE regret: bought too soon, but notes how MAs catching up created a “clean” move.

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Contrast with IDEX: less ideal without MA alignment. Qullamaggie views MAs as “magic lines” in trending markets, where leaders “surf” them (e.g., 10-day for explosive, 20-day for slower), bouncing repeatedly to build higher lows before extension.

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He advises studying thousands of charts to internalize: “good stocks are above rising MAs,” and buy when price meets them in hot themes.

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Jeff Sun adapts MAs practically in rule-based systems, using them as dynamic support for entries: buy pullbacks to the 10/20 in strong trends, as they act as “magic” in leading stocks, confirming with higher lows and volume contraction for clean moves.

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He stresses MAs for proactive risk: trail below them, and in scans, filter stocks above all key MAs (10/20/50/200) for relative strength.

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Kay Klingson quantifies MA utility: they serve as “holy grail” for support in trends, validating buys near them through backtesting bounces post-pullbacks, emphasizing loose fits for volatility.

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Collective: MAs “catch up” for optimal buys—empirical from studies, not theory; wait for alignment to stack odds.

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Key Tenets:

  • MA Catch-Up for Entries: Buy when 10/20 MAs align with price after surges—best breakouts start here.

  • Avoid FOMO Early Buys: Premature entries (e.g., before MAs) risk underperformance; patience pays.

  • Surfing Dynamics: Leaders “surf” 10/20 with higher lows, bounces—buy near for extensions.

  • Empirical Validation: Study charts to see MAs’ “magic”—good stocks above rising ones.

Historical and Recent Examples

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Qullamaggie’s teachings abound with examples of MA-aligned buys. In SPCE: early FOMO buy before MAs caught up led to regret, but once aligned, it showed “clean” move with higher lows.

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MSTR: bought when flagged with RS and MAs caught up—ideal entry.

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IDEX contrast: less clean without MA support. CELH (2020): surfs 10/20 with higher lows off 20, 5-star flag breakout from MAs.

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TEM (2025): surfs 20 building higher lows, breaks off MAs.

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ONDS: pulls to MAs, higher lows, gaps above all MAs.

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ABAT: pulls to MAs, higher lows for months, gaps up.

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BE: pulls to rising MAs, higher lows, gaps up.

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OKLO: pulls to MAs, higher lows, expands from compression near MAs.

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OPEN: pulls to MAs, tight candles at 10, breaks off 10, surfs parabolically.

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WULF: 10/20 catch up, surfs 10, breaks off both.

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Historical: SQ 2017, TTD 2020—surf 10/20 all way up.

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TASR early 2000s: similar MA surfing.

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Jeff Sun’s examples: BLPH (2023): tight flag breakout reclaiming MAs after turbulent market.

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CRWD: cluster of rising MAs for entry.

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AVAV: post-earnings base, supported by short-term MAs.

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XLE: rallies when breaking downtrends, reclaiming MAs.

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URNJ: uranium pullbacks to MAs in robust trends.

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PLTR: holds above MAs in pullbacks, adding on strength.

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PLTR’s close below 10-MA: proactive stop, but re-entry if realigns.

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Stock
MA Alignment Description
Entry Outcome
Key Notes

SPCE

Early buy before 10/20 catch up; FOMO regret.

@lonextrades

Clean move post-alignment.

Wait for catch-up; higher lows key.

@lonextrades

MSTR

Buy when flagged, RS, 10/20 caught up.

@lonextrades

Strong breakout.

Ideal: MAs under price for support.

@lonextrades

CELH (2020)

Surfs 10/20, higher lows off 20, breaks off MAs.

@lonextrades

5-star flag extension.

Explosive surf; study thousands.

@lonextrades

TEM (2025)

Surfs 20 with higher lows, breaks off MAs.

@lonextrades

Surge post-catch-up.

Slower stocks on 20; explosive on 10.

@lonextrades

ONDS

Pulls to rising MAs, higher lows, gaps above all.

@lonextrades

Expansion from compression.

Theme hot; MAs support.

@lonextrades

ABAT

Higher lows to MAs, gaps up above all.

Massive move.

Months of build; patience pays.

BE

Pulls to rising MAs, higher lows, gaps up.

Surge on volume.

Theme attention; MAs “holy grail.”

OKLO

Higher lows to MAs, expands near MAs.

Breakout.

Nuclear theme; both 10/20 catch up.

OPEN

Tight candles at 10, breaks off 10, surfs.

Parabolic.

500% prior; MAs support.

WULF

10/20 catch up, surfs 10, breaks off both.

Surge.

Data centers; 5-star when both align.

SQ (2017)

Surfs 10/20 all way up.

Extension.

Growth surf; study for intuition.

TTD (2020)

Surfs 10/20.

Surge.

Momentum; MAs “magic.”

TASR (2000s)

MA surfing examples.

Runs.

Historical; patterns repeat.

BLPH (2023)

Tight flag reclaiming MAs.

+481% month.

Turbulent market; MAs filter.

CRWD

Cluster rising MAs for buy.

Surge.

Leaders surf MAs.

AVAV

Post-earnings base at short-term MAs.

Continuation.

Unfilled gap, supported MAs.

XLE

Rallies reclaiming MAs post-downtrend.

14-16% surges.

Sector RS; MAs support.

URNJ

Pullbacks to MAs in robust trend.

Preserved gains.

Uranium; MAs hold.

PLTR

Holds above MAs in pullbacks, adds strength.

Extended hold.

MA rule; “holy grail.”

Trading Framework: Implementation and Risk Management

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Qullamaggie’s framework: Scan for stocks with big moves, wait for pullbacks to 10/20 MAs with higher lows/RS, buy when MAs catch up—study to identify “good setups.”

  1. Scans/Identification:

    • Qullamaggie: Filter movers (100%+), pullbacks to rising 10/20 with higher lows

    • Jeff Sun: Stocks above all MAs (10/20/50/200) for RS; scan growth >25%

  2. Entry Rules:

    • Qullamaggie: Buy near 10/20 catch-up, flagged RS/higher lows—avoid early FOMO

    • Jeff Sun: Entries at MA support in trends; cluster rising MAs ideal.

  3. Risk/Sizing:

    • Qullamaggie: Stops below MAs; pyramid on extensions from alignments.

    • Jeff Sun: 0.15% risk; scale on MA holds.

    •  Size for MA bounces; reduce in poor environments.

  4. Psychological Tools:

    • Qullamaggie: Study to “see for yourself”—build intuition over FOMO.

    • Jeff Sun: MAs as “holy grail” for objectivity.

    • Detach; MAs guide less emotional decisions.

Pitfalls: Early buys (FOMO), ignore MA catch-up (miss clean moves).

Perspectives from Momentum Traders

    • Kristjan Kullamägi (Qullamaggie): Buy near 10/20 MAs after catch-up—best breakouts start here; avoid FOMO early (SPCE regret); MSTR ideal with RS/higher lows; study to identify—explosive surf 10, slower 20; “magic lines” in trends.
    • Jeff Sun: Buy pullbacks to 10/20 in trends—”magic” support; filter above all MAs for RS; entries at MA clusters; trail below; study for intuition.
    • Kay Klingson: MAs “holy grail” for support—buy bounces in trends; quant efficacy via backtests; loose fits for volatility; proactive in close below 10-MA.

    Conclusion and Actionable Takeaways

Qullamaggie’s MA catch-up philosophy optimizes entries: buy near 10/20 alignments for clean breakouts, as SPCE’s regret and MSTR’s ideal show—surfing with higher lows stacks odds.

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Jeff Sun’s rules filter above MAs; Kay Klingson’s quant validates bounces.

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Integrate: scan pullbacks to rising MAs. Actionables:

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Filter movers above 10/20/50/200, buy higher lows near 10/20 with RS, trail below 10-day, study 1,000 charts—one aligned entry compounds empires.

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Rewire: MAs “magic”—wait for catch-up, avoid FOMO for millionaire momentum.